Russian soldiers in Crimea?

[Livgardist]

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-politics/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I have a certain ancestral bias towards the country of Russia, but I shall try to keep it in check here, as I believe we have a few Russians here and I don't want to offend any of you.

The meat of the matter is, militia that most people seem to believe are Russian soldiers, have taken control of an airport in Crimea, Ukraine. I'm no expert in international law, but I believe this constitutes an act of war if proven to be true. If it's not true, all things considered, I think we can still track the militia to Russia by means of funding, equipment and/or training.

There is trouble afoot in Eastern Europe.

 

[Minuteman75]

I was afraid that something like that was going to happen.

 

[Insanity]

Chances are it's Spetsnaz working with local 'loyalists' or possibly mercenaries hired by the ex-President of Ukraine. Likely backed by Putin as well, but never gonna have proof of that, I'm sure.

 

[Minuteman75]

Yea that a strong possibility indeed. The question is what can the new Ukrainian government do about this?

 

[Clayton]

Yea that a strong possibility indeed. The question is what can the new Ukrainian government do about this?

Ukraine has appealed to the US and UK about the NATO defensive pact so there might be a peaceful solution to the civil unrest problem.

Ukraine could retake the airports with their military, but considering Crimea is an autonomous province, that could be putting sparks to a trail of gunpowder. But neither can Ukraine let the militia which are probably backed by Russia, operate within Ukranian borders without appearing to be a weak and ineffective government. I guarantee you that sending in the military to retake Crimean airports is a very real option on the Ukranian table. These aren't locals with a couple shotguns and hunting rifles. They've got military equipment in the form of weaponry and vehicles, as well as a clear goal. Their seizing of the airports was something planned, not a spontaneous event.

 

[Jason Vaiken]

Well as I mentioned earlier at some point my grandfather was a soldier for the Red Army in WW2 he fought at Stalingrad and Berlin to name a few. Also we have to understand that these lands all once belonged to the Russians under the Tsars.

There is also a major cultural divide, the East Ukrainians consider themselves Russian while the Western Ukrainians consider themselves Ukrainian. Also West Ukrainians helped the Nazi and Axis armies during their invasion of the Soviet Union and during the Nazi occupation of Kiev and West Ukraine some did willingly turn over Jews.

There is a lot of mistrust between Ukrainians that will meed to be addressed hopefully without people beating up the Eastern Ukrainians or the Tartars.

 

[Livgardist]

Chances are it's Spetsnaz working with local 'loyalists' or possibly mercenaries hired by the ex-President of Ukraine. Likely backed by Putin as well, but never gonna have proof of that, I'm sure.

I'm thinking Russian special forces. If you look at the pictures, most of the so-called militia are wearing the same uniform, very expensive gear including ballistic vests, Russian AN-94 assault rifles (which are in limited supply outside of Russia yet), and whathaveyou else. I seriously doubt this is a band of mercenaries, or some ragtag Ukraino-Russian militia.

I'm deinitely not alone in thinking this, but unfortunately that's not enough to hold up politically as evidence of Russian misbehavior.

Ukraine has appealed to the US and UK about the NATO defensive pact so there might be a peaceful solution to the civil unrest problem.

Ukraine could retake the airports with their military, but considering Crimea is an autonomous province, that could be putting sparks to a trail of gunpowder. But neither can Ukraine let the militia which are probably backed by Russia, operate within Ukranian borders without appearing to be a weak and ineffective government. I guarantee you that sending in the military to retake Crimean airports is a very real option on the Ukranian table. These aren't locals with a couple shotguns and hunting rifles. They've got military equipment in the form of weaponry and vehicles, as well as a clear goal. Their seizing of the airports was something planned, not a spontaneous event.

I agree. And I think in due time, unless these pseudo-Russians withdraw, we're going to be looking at a military response. In fact, from what I've heard, things are already going in that direction right now.

Sidenote says that Putin claims Russian citizens in Ukraine are at risk.

This reminds me of what Adolf Hitler said about the Rhineland.

CNN

Simferopol, Ukraine (CNN) -- [Breaking News Update 9:22 a.m. ET]

(CNN) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin asked the upper house of parliament to send Russian troops into Ukraine's Crimea region to normalize the political situation there, the Kremlin said Saturday. Due to the "extraordinary situation on Ukraine," Putin said, there are threats to the lives of Russian citizens and Russian military personnel based in the Crimean region.

My train of thought goes as follow. Ukraine was at a point before this crisis where they were having to choose between going closer to Russia or the European Union. My question is; If Russia intervenes militarily... If the EU doesn't respond by helping Ukraine in some way other than whining about it politically (Let's face it, Russia doesn't give a rat's ass about protest notes delivered by foreign ambassadors) what possible reason could Ukraine then have to go with the European Union over Russia? My point is, if the EU is not there for Ukraine in times of crisis like this, then there's no real point in them getting closer to the EU at all. This is when we need to stand with them.

 

[Jason Vaiken]

My train of thought goes as follow. Ukraine was at a point before this crisis where they were having to choose between going closer to Russia or the European Union. My question is; If Russia intervenes militarily... If the EU doesn't respond by helping Ukraine in some way other than whining about it politically (Let's face it, Russia doesn't give a rat's ass about protest notes delivered by foreign ambassadors) what possible reason could Ukraine then have to go with the European Union over Russia? My point is, if the EU is not there for Ukraine in times of crisis like this, then there's no real point in them getting closer to the EU at all. This is when we need to stand with them.

Putin wants a military response, he could care less what the EU does. He is testing the will of the EU and US in defending Ukraine's sovereignty. As you said before this is what Adolf Hitler did with England and France.

Step One: Put soldiers in the Rhineland, no response.
Step Two: Anschluss with Austria, once again no response.
Step Three: Treaty of Munich gives the Sudetenland to Germany.
Step Four: Invade Poland and plunge the world into the second World War.

If someone doesn't stand up quickly the Russians will keep taking more and more land.

 

[Tara Bronwyn]

Well the claim their not 'Russian soldiers.' Or last I heard anyway, I'll have to search for it. But, honestly, I fail to see why Putin is claiming ignorance about the whole the, the rest of the world knows who is behind it.

 

[Minuteman75]

Putin doesn't care if the world knows as long as he gets he wants from this situation. I wish the West would stand more firmly with Ukraine on this. Yet we need to ask ourselves far the EU and the US is willing to back Ukraine in this crisis besides political statements? We all don't want a war but yet appeasement won't help either as mentioned. Man this is so complicated!

 

[Livgardist]

You all make sense.

My gut reaction is military support to Ukraine. But as Minuteman said. Nobody wants a war.

Perhaps deploy special forces to help. That's what we can hope for, I think. I know one thing, as Jason Vaiken said; Somebody needs to say stop, or that Putin will keep taking, and keep pushing it...

 

[Minuteman75]

Yea maybe special forces and other clandestine units that would be indirect support to Ukraine but even that is a risky move. Other than that, supplies. I imagine if war breaks out, the Ukrainians would fight back and very bravely since this is their home that is being threaten. Yet Russia has a bigger military and is more experienced in warfare, not to mention segments of the Ukrainian population are strongly Pro-Russian.

I suspect that Putin isn't aiming to officially take over Ukraine but to make it a satellite state by reinstalling that puppet leader who got kicked out by his people.

 

[Livgardist]

I agree. So does Carl Bildt, my country's foreign minister.

We can't let that happen though. It sets a dangerous precedence. Sort of like giving in to terrorists' demands. :CStern

 

[Jason Vaiken]

It isn't just that he'll keep talking, he'll start grabbing more land. Finland, parts of Poland, and the Ukraine were once part of the Empire. Until someone draws the line militarily he'll keep going.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

This isn't something I would want to see the United States become militarily involved in. Ultimately this is an issue between pro-Russian forces and pro-European Union forces, and the US is largely irrelevant to the situation. Wanting to support pro-western ideals is all well and good, but not when it means lighting a fuse that could spark a return to the Cold War―or worse. Comparisons to the 1930s are unfounded; Vladimir Putin is not Adolf Hitler. Putin is not attempting to take over a continent, he is trying to maintain Russia's sphere of influence over the former Soviet republics. The United States has done the same thing with our areas of influence and interest throughout the 20th and 21st centuries.

Our national security interests in Ukraine are minimal, if not non-existent. We're fortunate that Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin were able to get nuclear weapons out of Ukraine or this would probably be a much more serious matter. So without clear national security interests, this is just idealism. Though unfortunate, we do not have the resources, public support, or capability to launch idealistic military interventions, however minimal, against Russian forces.

 

[Minuteman75]

I'm afraid you're right, Brandon the US won't be much help. It will depend on how Ukraine and the EU stand together. Though this is a slim possibility could the United Nations could get involve into this affair diplomatically?

 

[Brandon Rhea]

I'm afraid you're right, Brandon the US won't be much help. It will depend on how Ukraine and the EU stand together. Though this is a slim possibility could the United Nations could get involve into this affair diplomatically?

Doubtful. Individuals at the United Nations, like the Secretary General, could try to intervene and negotiate, but any collective action would require the Security Council, for which Russia has a veto.

 

[BLADE]

It's hilarious how many pseudo-Churchills we have on this forum. Allow me to point out some things that Bac missed:

1. From a geopolitical perspective, neither the European Union nor the United States has much incentive to get involved; for the former Russian energy interests and economic ties are far more important than the abstract question of whether Ukraine (I will be the first to say I don't give a ADMIN EDIT is independent. For the the latter, Russian influence on several issues (Sinic influence in Transiberia, Central Asian stability, nuclear proliferation) is far more important than Ukrainian autonomy --not to mention that we've already opportunistically reduced the historic Russian sphere of influence at relatively little cost, so what would be the point of doing so now?

2. From a moral perspective, the answer isn't as clear-cut either. Tymoshenko, the unofficial leader/symbol of the protests led a government that was... corrupt and had human rights abuses. Much like Yanukovych. The two, in fact, used to be allies until diverging political tactics --Yanukovych bet on Russian enclaves in places like Lvov, etc. and Tymoshenko on Ukrainian nationalism hence the hilarious peasant braids she wears. Furthermore, many of the opposition elements are hardly democratic and include Neo-Nazis, those who think the ethnic Russian minorities in the east are Commies and JOOOZ (something which as a JOOOOO myself I find rather amusing), opportunistic rival business interests in the West, etc. What public polling we've seen indicates a far more divided "country" than anything the hyperventilating in here has indicated.

3. Russia does not want to take over the world, you halfwits. At most it wants some leverage over Ukrainian resources (like grain) and continuing access to the Black Sea via Sevastopol and Crimea.) It has neither the relative capabilities of Nazi Germany nor the geopolitical insecurities --its size and nuclear arsenal preclude any of the Bismarckian coalitional cauchemars which haunted the sundry Reichs.

tl;dr

There's nothing we can do, aside from even-handedly strengthening the capacities of the UN and offering mediation should it come to that. The rest of you are idiots and Russophobic to boot. Did I mention you're idiots? Because you are.

Grow up, people. There are legitimately millions of Ukrainians who are neither opportunistic kleptocrats like Tymoshenko or... opportunistic kleptocrats like Yanukovych who just want to live in peace --both Pro-Russian and Pro-European. We do them a disservice by trying to turn this situation into a shitty (granted they're all shitty) Tom Clancy novel.

 

[Minuteman75]

I sincerely apologize to everyone I offended for expressing my views on this subject, I wish to reassure you all that it won't be a problem in the future. Because I won't be taking part in these current affairs discussions anymore. For now on I'm just going to focus on Star Wars related stuff when on this site. Once again I am deeply sorry for what I have done.

 

[Raif]

Did I mention you're idiots? Because you are.

I just love it when you weigh in on these subjects, Pros. You've got such a way with words, and uniting the common-man behind your point of view. It's downright moving.

I sincerely apologize to everyone I offended for expressing my views on this subject, I wish to reassure you all that it won't be a problem in the future. Because I won't be taking part in these current affairs discussions anymore. For now on I'm just going to focus on Star Wars related stuff when on this site. Once again I am deeply sorry for what I have done.

Don't take it personally, my man. Prospero comes off as a little brusque, maybe rude at times, but deep down it's just because he's...well, how to put it...he's mean? Yeah, I think that about sums it up. He's just a mean, mean man.

Honestly, though, you should take it as a sign of respect that he even deigned to dedicate time and energy to writing a post in this thread. He very rarely associates with us mere mortals.

:CHappy Love ya Pros ol' buddy